Four takeaways from 2024’s GCSE results

Getty Images A student, who is wearing a black jacket and has a braid in his hair, looks quizzically at his GCSE results slip. His friends look on, one of them holding his hand to his mouth.

The college students opening GCSE and different Level 2 outcomes earlier had not heard the phrase “Covid” once they first walked by their secondary-school gates.

Most can have began Year 7 in September 2019, spending just a few months attending to grips and making pals earlier than, within the spring, most pupils needed to study from residence.

The size of time spent in on-line classes over the next two years assorted in response to the place they lived – and appeared very totally different relying on entry to laptops and different expertise.

These college students are distinctive – the primary to have spent each secondary yr within the midst, or the wake, of the pandemic.

In Wales and Northern Ireland, they’re additionally the primary to expertise a return to pre-pandemic grading.

Here are some key issues it’s worthwhile to know.

1. GCSE grades have fallen once more

The GCSE move price throughout England, Wales and Northern Ireland has fallen for a 3rd yr working.

With 67.6% of all grades at 4/C or above, down from 68.2% final yr, that general move price has now returned to 2019 ranges – the final yr exams had been sat earlier than Covid.

And it’s far under that of 2020 and 2021, when exams had been cancelled and outcomes based mostly on lecturers’ assessments.

A bar chart showing the percentage of grades marked at 4/C and above and 7/A and above across England, Wales and Northern Ireland every year between 2019 and 2024. It shows that both percentages increased in 2020 and 2021 and have since fallen back closer to 2019 levels.

2. The drop is steepest in Northern Ireland

This yr, the proportion of GCSEs marked at 4/C or above is:

67.4% in England, down from 67.8% in 2023
61.7% in Wales, down from 64.5%
82% in Northern Ireland, down from 86.6%

Some college students in Wales and Northern Ireland – the place the drop is steeper than in England – could really feel dissatisfied however the story right here is larger than considered one of particular person efficiency.

There has been an effort to convey grades again down consistent with pre-pandemic ranges ever since these sharp rises in 2020 and 2021.

In England, the exams regulator aimed for that return to 2019 ranges final yr – though the grades remained barely increased – and this yr, the move price is across the similar.

But in Wales and Northern Ireland, the plan was for this yr to be the one when grades fell again consistent with pre-Covid ranges.

3. The regional divide continues to be rising in England

London stays the highest-performing area this yr, with 72.5% of entries marked at 4/C or above, and the West Midlands, the place that move price was 63.1%, the bottom .

But that 9.4 percentage-point hole is up from 8.7 final yr and 6.8 in 2019, when London was once more the highest-performing and the West Midlands and the North East the joint lowest.

More broadly, the North-South divide that existed earlier than Covid persists.

Four out of 5 areas within the North and Midlands had a decrease move price this yr than in 2019 – however in each area within the South it has risen.

The Northern Powerhouse suppose tank says the regional variations are “largely a mirrored image of the variations… within the proportions of long-term deprived youngsters by area”.

Pupils skilled totally different quantities of Covid disruption – and MPs warned final yr it may take a decade for the hole between deprived pupils and others to slim to what it was earlier than the pandemic.

A map of regions in England, highlighted in different shades of blue depending on the proportion of pass grades. There is a smaller map, too, showing the same map in 2019. Broadly, the map shows a widening North-South divide.

4. Resits to rise as a whole lot of 1000’s fail maths or English

The move price amongst 16-year-olds sitting English language and maths in England is barely worse than final yr however higher than 2019.

But as a result of the 16-year-old inhabitants has grown for the reason that pandemic, the quantity failing the topics is increased than in 2019 or 2023.

In England, college students want maths and English GCSEs at grade 4 or above to qualify for additional research – though they’ll research for resits alongside their new topic decisions.

Colleges say they already needed to broaden class sizes and rent examination halls to deal with final yr’s rise – as a result of pupil inhabitants development and grades being introduced all the way down to 2019 ranges in England.

This yr, they should put together for much more resit college students.

The knowledge suggests about:

182,000 16-year-olds might want to resit English language
176,000 might want to resit maths

We have no idea precisely what number of college students who had been in Year 11 final yr resat exams this summer time however the variety of 17-year-olds taking English language and maths offers a sign – and there was fast development there.

But the move price amongst these 17-year-olds was simply:

22.1% in English language
18.3% in maths

And the Association of Colleges is now questioning whether or not the system of obligatory GCSE resits is acceptable, whereas the Association of School and College Leaders has referred to as it “demoralising”.