Diplomatic tightrope for Indian PM as he visits Kyiv after Moscow

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is in Ukraine on Friday to carry talks with President Volodymyr Zelensky. The journey comes simply weeks after he met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow.

The go to is critical as a result of Kyiv and a few Western capitals had reacted sharply to Mr Modi’s go to to the Russian capital in July.

Mr Zelensky was notably essential, saying he was “dissatisfied to see the chief of the world’s largest democracy hug the world’s most bloody legal in Moscow”.

So, is Mr Modi visiting Kyiv to placate Mr Zelensky and different Western leaders?

Not totally.

It’s not stunning to see India steadiness its relations between two competing nations or blocs. The nation’s famed non-alignment method to geopolitics has served it effectively for many years.

Friday’s go to – the primary by an Indian prime minister to Ukraine – is extra about signalling that whereas India will proceed to have robust relations with Russia, it’s going to nonetheless work carefully with the West.

Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute on the Wilson Centre think-tank in Washington, says the journey will additional reassert India’s strategic autonomy.

“India isn’t within the enterprise of placating Western powers, or anybody for that matter. It’s a visit meant to advance Indian pursuits, by reasserting friendship with Kyiv and conveying its issues concerning the persevering with struggle,” he says.

However, the timing of the go to does replicate that Indian diplomats have taken onboard the sharp reactions from the US to Mr Modi’s Moscow go to.

India has shunned instantly criticising Russia over the struggle, a lot to the annoyance of Western powers.

Delhi, nevertheless, has usually spoken concerning the significance of respecting territorial integrity and sovereignty of countries. It has constantly pushed for diplomacy and dialogue to finish the struggle.

Mr Modi’s Moscow go to in July got here hours after Russian bombing killed no less than 41 folks in Ukraine, together with at a kids’s hospital in Kyiv, sparking a world outcry.

The Indian PM mentioned the dying of youngsters was painful and terrifying however stopped wanting blaming Russia.

Mr Modi just isn’t more likely to deviate from this stance throughout his go to to Kyiv. The US and different Western nations have grown to just accept Delhi’s stand, given India’s time-tested relationship with Moscow and its reliance on Russian army gear.

India, the world’s largest importer of arms, has diversified its defence import portfolio and in addition grown home manufacturing lately however it nonetheless buys greater than 50% of its defence gear from Russia.

India has additionally elevated its oil imports from Russia, making the most of cheaper costs supplied by Moscow – Russia was the highest oil provider to India final yr.

The US and its allies have usually implored India to take a clearer stand on the struggle however they’ve additionally shunned making use of harsh sanctions or strain.

The West additionally sees India as a counterbalance to China and doesn’t need to upset that dynamic. India, now the fifth largest financial system on the earth, can be a rising marketplace for enterprise.

Mr Kugelman says the West will welcome the go to and see it as Delhi’s willingness to interact with all sides.

“Mr Modi has a powerful incentive to sign that it’s not leaning so near Moscow that there’s nothing to salvage with Kyiv,” he says.

This is necessary as a result of India needs to continue to grow its relations with the West, notably with the US, and would not need to upset the momentum. Eric Garcetti, the US ambassador to India, lately mentioned the connection shouldn’t be “taken with no consideration”.

India additionally wants the West as China, its Asian rival, and Russia have cast shut ties lately.

While Delhi has lengthy considered Moscow as an influence that may put strain on an assertive China when wanted, it might’t be taken with no consideration.

Meanwhile, many media commentators have spoken about the opportunity of Mr Modi positioning himself as a peacemaker, given India’s shut relations with each Moscow and the West.

But it’s unlikely that he’ll flip up with a peace plan.

“Is India actually as much as it, and are the circumstances proper? India doesn’t like different international locations making an attempt to mediate in its personal points, chief amongst them Kashmir. And I don’t assume Mr Modi would formally supply mediation until each Russia and Ukraine need it. And at this level, I don’t assume they do,” Mr Kugelman provides.

Ukraine, nevertheless, will nonetheless welcome Mr Modi’s go to and see it as a possibility to interact with a detailed ally of Moscow, one thing it hasn’t completed a lot for the reason that struggle started.

Mr Zelensky, although, is unlikely to carry again his criticism of Mr Putin in entrance of the Indian PM. Mr Modi can dwell with that as he has confronted such conditions many instances in different Western capitals.

Moscow just isn’t more likely to react to the go to because it has additionally been making concessions for Delhi’s multilateral method to geopolitics.

But past reasserting its non-alignment coverage, Delhi additionally has greater objectives from this go to.

India has been ramping up engagement with Europe up to now decade, notably with the underserved areas in Central and Eastern Europe.

Delhi needs to maintain consolidating its relations with the large 4 – the UK, Italy, Germany and France – but in addition needs to spice up engagement with different international locations in Europe.

Mr Modi can be visiting Poland on this journey – the primary Indian PM to go to the nation in 45 years. He additionally grew to become the primary Indian prime minister to go to Austria in 41 years in July.

Analysts say that this indicators India’s rising understanding that Central European nations will play an even bigger position in geopolitics sooner or later and robust relations with them will serve Delhi effectively.

The Indian authorities has additionally revived commerce deal negotiations with Europe. It has signed a commerce and funding take care of the European Free Trade Association, which is the intergovernmental organisation of Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland.

So, whereas there shall be a variety of concentrate on the struggle throughout his go to, Indian diplomats are more likely to keep centered on the larger objective.

“Central and Eastern Europe now have better company in writing their very own future and reshaping regional geopolitics. Mr Modi’s go to to Warsaw and Kyiv is about recognising that momentous change on the coronary heart of Europe and deepening bilateral political, financial and safety ties with the Central European states,” international coverage analyst C Raja Mohan wrote in the Indian Express newspaper, summing up Mr Modi’s wider objective.